Challenges have run abound for higher education over the past year. Some of these have been prevalent in the news cycle, such as changes to federal funding. However, recent policy changes by the federal government add pressure to an already growing trend of declining college enrollment.

According to data from the Education Data Initiative, college enrollment increased from 2023 to 2024, however enrollment remains below what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend is only going to decline. A report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education finds that high school graduates are projected to gradually decline beginning next fall and lasting until 2041.

These numbers mean that enrollment decline is inevitable, and for a school like Linfield that is tuition-dependent, it can pose large problems. President Mark Blegen addressed these at a town hall in September.

“Eighteen years ago we were in a recession,” Blegen said. “And families had less children. Fast forward 18 years, there’s less high school graduates.”

Changes to federal policies regarding federal loans have added to an already bleak enrollment outlook. Policies put in place by the President Donald Trump’s administration have reduced eligibility for federal loans and changed the structure in how they are repaid.

So how is this impacting Linfield and its students?

“The aid I’ve been given, it’s been severely docked,” Sarah Coffman, a freshman, said. “Compared to what my sister was [it’s less] because they no longer account for siblings when deciding how much financial aid you get.”

Gerardo Ochoa, vice president for enrollment management and student success, has been working on mitigating these impacts on enrollment. While he won’t know the full effect of the changes to loans for another year, there are plenty of potential impacts on students.

“Whenever the state, or even the federal government is looking at pulling back either the state grant in Oregon, the Pell Grant at the federal level,” Ochoa said. “Whenever those things stay flat or decrease, then that just adds to the financial pressure.”

The Pell Grant is a grant given to students from low income families. Unlike student loans, it does not need to be repaid.

However, it’s not just the cost of tuition that creates financial pressure either. Things that may seem completely unrelated to college are also part of the equation for potential students.

“Cost of gas, cost of food, cost of rent, housing, all these things, they’re not directly related to higher education, but they are expenses students and families have,” Ochoa said.

These affordability concerns aren’t only being felt by senior high school students, but also currently enrolled students as well.

“People as it is can’t afford to go to college,” Kayden Harris, a sophomore biochemistry major, said. “We are seeing a decrease in college enrollment overall, so why are we making it less accessible?”

Another impact public policy has had on decreasing enrollment in higher education is felt by Linfield students directly. Many Linfield students are considering going to graduate school, but the recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 has changed the game.

“At the graduate level, effective July 1, 2026, the government essentially ended the Grad Plus loan,” Ochoa said. “So students will not be able to borrow from the federal government this one loan that could have covered up to their entire cost of attendance.”

Grad Plus loans allowed graduate students to borrow federal loans up to the cost of their attendance, minus other forms of financial aid. This allowed students to get loans with lower interest rates, as private loans have higher rates.

These changes have caused students and alumni to rethink how they may approach graduate school. Clara Johansen, a 2025 graduate, is currently an adjunct communications professor at Linfield. Johansen says that changes in policy have caused her to look elsewhere to get a graduate degree.

“Current government policy is a big factor as to why, right now, I’m only looking at graduate schools overseas,” Johansen said. “Cuts to disability services and DEI initiatives in higher education make me nervous to stay in the country as a disabled person in general.”

Johansen has applied to schools in the United Kingdom, where she spent a semester abroad during her time at Linfield.

These changes are likely to force graduates looking to continue their education to turn to private student loans that have higher interest rates.

“They’re gonna have to either pay for it out of pocket if they have the resources, borrow from family and friends, or seek a private loan that is credit-based,” Ochoa said. “Students may need a co-signer. They’ll need to have strong credit, and interest rates are market-based. Right now we’re seeing interest rates between 8% and 16%.”

Despite these changes, Ochoa is confident in the value of getting a bachelor’s degree. Johansen says that if she were graduating high school right now, she’d do it all again with one caveat.

“I would have the same skepticism with which I’m looking at U.S graduate programs right now,” Johansen said.

Coffman says that even if she had graduated a year later, it would not affect her plans.

“I would still end up going to Linfield,” Coffman said. “But that’s because the aid was not enough to base my decision off of.”

With this added pressure to an already growing problem, declining college enrollment is a trend that seems to be continuing in the near future.