Alex Harkaway – For the Review. Baseball free agency: a time when the rich teams throw millions at elite talent; the middle-class teams cross their fingers, hoping they can swoop up productive, under-the-radar players; and the poor teams prepare for yet another losing season (sorry, Pirate fans).
The winter drama was intense last year. One could argue this year’s World Series was won last offseason when the Yankees shelled out nearly half a billion dollars on free agents. In baseball, success breeds copycats, so you can bet teams will be trying to beat the Yankees at their own game this year by picking up a difference-maker or two.
Although no big signings have been made yet, rumors are already surfacing, making this a stressful time for general managers, agents and ballplayers alike. There is a reason baseball people refer to the free agency rumor mill as “the Hot Stove.” (And it has nothing to do with C.C. Sabathia’s eating habits.)
Here is a look at who will be chasing the big names and where they might end up:
Matt Holliday:
Why he’ll cash in: Holliday was consistently a big-time run producer in Colorado, but after he was traded to Oakland last winter, he got off to the worst start of his career.
Questions surfaced about his ability to produce outside of hitter-friendly Coors Field. These questions were quickly answered after his midseason trade to St. Louis. With the Cardinals, Holliday hit .353 with 55 RBIs, driving in nearly a run per game. More importantly, his presence in the lineup helped transform St. Louis from a playoff contender to a runaway division winner.
Where he’ll end up: New York Mets. The Yankees could offer him a fat contract, but there will be pressure in the Bronx to keep the team’s championship nucleus together. This means re-signing Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, which would leave no room for Holliday. The Cardinals would like to keep him but will likely be outbid by the San Francisco Giants and the Mets. San Francisco is a better fit for Holliday, but New York has more money to spend.
Jason Bay:
Why he’ll cash in: Bay is a model of consistency, coming off back-to-back 30-home run, 100-RBI seasons. While his numbers aren’t as impressive as Holliday’s, he does have one advantage: Bay proved he can perform in both the American and National leagues. As a result, many teams will bid for his services, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and Mets (if they fail to land Holliday).
Where he’ll end up: Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have seen the Yankees swoop in and snatch one of their star outfielders away before (Damon, four years ago). They won’t let New York do it again.
John Lackey:
Why he’ll cash in: Lackey, the only true ace on the free agent market, has won at least 10 games in each of the past seven seasons. He is consistent, durable and packaged with a history of postseason success. He will probably receive contract offers close to what A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe, two comparable pitchers, got last year. Burnett got $82 million from the Yankees; Lowe got $60 million from the Braves. In other words, it’s not a bad time to be John Lackey.
Where he’ll end up: Boston Red Sox. Lackey will have no shortage of suitors, but one will be more motivated and willing to go the extra mile (and pay the extra dollar). That team will be the Red Sox, whose pitching staff was nowhere near good enough to make it to the World Series last year.
Signing Lackey away from the Angels would help Boston gain ground on Los Angeles, the team that eliminated it last year. Keeping him away from the rival Yankees would be an added benefit, as well.
Chone Figgins:
Why he’ll cash in: Figgins is an exceptional base stealer, and his stolen-base totals have ranked near the top of the league in each of the past six years. During this time, Figgins has seen significant action in a whopping six different positions.
While Figgins has developed into a good third baseman, he can also handle second base, shortstop and all three outfield spots. His versatility in the field and ability to handle the bat will make him an attractive target for many teams.
Where he’ll end up: San Francisco Giants. This is the trickiest situation to predict because there is no telling just how many teams will be chasing him. The incumbent Angels certainly want him back, but they may have their hands full attempting to re-sign Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero.
The Cardinals love versatile players such as Figgins and may go after him hard if they lose Holliday. Teams such as the Red Sox, Mets and Mariners could use him, too. However, my money is on the Giants, a team that is desperate to improve its offense and badly needs a leadoff hitter.
Roy Halladay:
Why he’ll cash in: Wait, you say, Halladay isn’t a free agent! While that is true, it won’t stop Halladay from signing a monster contract extension with the team that trades for him.
Halladay has made it clear that he wants out of Toronto, and the feeling appears to be mutual. After General Manager J.P. Ricciardi failed to deal Halladay before the trading deadline last year, Toronto fired him, replacing him with Alex Anthopoulos, a man whose primary task now is to deal away his ace for prospects.
Where he’ll end up: Philadelphia Phillies. Only two teams appear to have both the caliber of prospects Toronto is seeking and the money to afford re-signing Halladay. One is the Red Sox, but if they sign Lackey, Anthopoulos can cross them off his wish list. That leaves the Phillies, who have an unsettled rotation outside of Cliff Lee and will need a boost if they want to reach the World Series for the third year in a row.