Alex Harkaway – For the Review. A new power is in the Pac-10 driver’s seat, and it has a beak.
The University of Oregon Ducks demolished the University of Southern California Trojans on Nov. 1, 47-20. They moved the ball at will, piling up 391 rushing yards to hand the Trojans their worst loss since 1997.
The Trojans have won at least a share of the Pac-10 conference championship in each of the past seven years. But now that USC has lost two conference games, that run appears to have reached an end.
The Ducks have won each of their five conference games by margins of at least two touchdowns. In four of those five games, they put 40 or more points on the board. Their spread offense, led by junior Jeremiah Masoli (1,127 passing yards, 436 rushing yards) and freshman LaMichael James (918 yards rushing, 150-plus yards in three straight games) has been unstoppable. The past few games have made Ducks fans forget all about their embarrassing season-opening loss to the Boise State Broncos.
The BCS standings, however, rank Oregon eighth in the country. This means, even if the Ducks win out, they will have a difficult time reaching the national championship game.
The Ducks are playing as well as any team in the nation right now. But, come January, will they get a chance to prove they are the best?
A lot of college football is left to be played, but for the Ducks to have a shot at reaching the national championship, six things need to happen:
1) Nov. 13: No. 5 Cincinnati loses to West Virginia
The Bearcats have put together a remarkable first half of the season. For the Ducks to leapfrog this undefeated team, the Bearcats must lose a game. West Virginia is a perennial contender in the Big East, and this year is no different. An upset then, or Dec. 5 when the Bearcats visit Pittsburgh, is plausible.
2 and 3) Nov. 14: No. 6 TCU loses to Utah, and No. 4 Iowa loses at Ohio State
The undefeated Horned Frogs of Texas Christian University boast one of the fastest, most aggressive defenses in the country. They may not play in a BCS conference, but voters still have ranked them two spots above Oregon.
For that to change, TCU will have to lose here in its only remaining game against a team with a winning record.
Iowa had many of its games go down to the wire this season, yet it won them all. The Ducks need the Hawkeyes’ luck to run out here so Oregon can pass Iowa in the standings.
4) Nov. 27: Alabama loses at Auburn
By now, Oregon will have beaten Stanford, Arizona State and Arizona, improving to 10-1 on the year and clinching the Pac-10 Championship. And, because Cincinnati, TCU and Iowa each have losses, Oregon will be ranked fifth in the BCS, trailing Florida, Texas, Alabama and Boise State. This is where things get tricky.
Texas plays an easy schedule the rest of the way and is unlikely to lose. Florida also faces weak competition for the remainder of the regular season. So, the Ducks must hope that Alabama loses a game. However, the Crimson Tide’s toughest remaining contest is against No. 9 Louisiana State University. This presents a lose-lose situation for Oregon.
If Alabama wins out, Oregon has no shot at the championship. If LSU beats Alabama, the Tigers will most likely pass the Ducks in the standings, also keeping them out. So, Oregon needs Alabama to beat LSU and then lose one of its other games. Alabama’s next tough opponent is rival Auburn.
5) Dec. 5: Florida loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game
Even if Alabama loses to Auburn (thus moving the Ducks up to fourth in the BCS), it still earns a spot in the SEC title game, where Oregon needs it to beat Florida. With hope, this result will keep both Florida and Alabama from earning a spot in the national championship game.
6) Anytime: Poll voters realize Oregon is a better team than Boise State
Yes, the Broncos beat the Ducks earlier this year. But the Ducks that the Broncos beat then are nothing like the Ducks now. This squad is playing with poise and running up the scoreboard. If that isn’t enough to sway voters, consider this: Since these teams met in September, the Broncos have not played a single ranked opponent. By the end of the season, the Ducks will have played, and beaten, four.
In this complex and intricate scenario, Oregon wins out, gets lucky six times and achieves the coveted No. 2 ranking in the BCS. It would then play Texas in the championship game.
Is all of this likely to happen? Of course not. But after the show Oregon put on against USC, a Duck can dream.